Over the last 25 years, the fertility rate in the United States has generally hewed close to the replacement total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman, with slight deviations in response to the business cycle. This means that the U.S. has enjoyed exceptionally high fertility for a developed nation. But Demographic Intelligence (DI) now believes that the era of American Exceptionalism when it comes to American fertility is over. For the foreseeable future, DI predicts that the U.S. TFR will remain below 2.0.

Subscribe to the U.S. Fertility Forecast™.