Child populations are declining nationally and in most U.S. states. Particularly deep declines in populations of children under the age of eight are expected to be seen in rapidly aging states with low birth rates like California, Illinois, Hawaii, Vermont, New Mexico and West Virginia. States that benefit from intra-country migration, and which have relatively higher birth rates, like Florida, North and South Carolina, Tennessee and Nevada can expect more stable child populations.

However, no state should expect significant growth in child populations in the foreseeable future. Even high-fertility states with strong economies and in-migration like Utah, North Dakota and Texas have experienced declining child populations in recent years as fertility rates tumble across the board.

Florida stands out as one of the few states to see an uptick in births over the last decade. It is one of just a handful of states that DI anticipates will see its population under the age of five to continue rising through 2021. This means schools will continue to see more children entering Kindergarten in the Sunshine State for the near future.

Read our full press release here on what the ramifications of state-level fertility and child population changes will have on everything from education programs to consumer products.